Forecasting the price of crude oil

Crude oil is the mixture of petroleum liquids and gases that extracted from ground by wells. It an important source fuel used in production several products. Given role price crude plays, it becomes extremely for managers to predict future while making operational decisions such as: when purchase material, how much produce what modes transportation use. The goal this paper develop a forecasting model prices aid management reduce costs, increase profit enhance competitive advantage. We first analyze primary theories related forecast followed reviews two main streams theory, which are Target Capacity Utilization Rule (TCU) Exhaustible Resources Theory. implement recursive simulation test on historical data 1987 through 2017 1991 2017. tried variations base best method produced MAD, MSE, MAPE MPE 12.676, 280.92, 0.2597, 0.028, respectively. further estimated forecasts at monthly level based our yearly method. calculated values 5.66, 82.1163, 0.1246 0.038, respectively, shows promising again level.